We have divided our research into three topics: commodity prices, resource rich economies, and applied macroeconomics and time series. Within each topic we have published papers in leading economic journals.
BI Research Centre
Centre for Applied Macroeconomics and Commodity Prices (CAMP)
CAMP is established to bring together economists working on applied macroeconomic issues, with special emphasis on energy economics.
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Here we have gathered our research on applied macroeconomics and time series. Our research on this topic includes forecasting financial series and macroeconomic variables such as GDP, and research on relevant methodology for macroeconomic research.
- Forecasting Cryptocurrencies under Model and Parameter Instability (Catania, Grassi and Ravazzolo). Published in: International Journal of Forecasting vol 35 (2019) pp. 485–501
- Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting (McAlinn, Aastveit, Nakajima and West). Forthcoming in: Journal of the American Statistical Association (JASA)
- Detecting and Analyzing the Effects of Time-Varying Parameters in DSGE Models (Canova, Ferroni and Matthes). Forthcoming in: International Economic Review
- On the use of machine learning for causal inference in climate economics (Hovdahl)
- Changing supply elasticities and regional housing booms (Aastveit, Albuquerque and Anundsen)
- News-driven inflation expectations and information rigidities (Larsen, Thorsrud and Zhulanova)
- Multivariate Bayesian Predictive Synthesis in Macroeconomic Forecasting (McAlinn, Aastveit, Nakajima and West)
- A New Monthly Indicator of Global Real Economic Activity (Ravazzolo and Vespignani). Forthcoming in: Canadian Journal of Economics
- Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Financial Time Series (Catania, Grassi and Ravazzolo). Forthcoming in: International Journal of Forecasting
- Residential investment and recession predictability (Aastveit, Anundsen and Herstad). Forthcoming in: International Journal of Forecasting.
- Oil and macroeconomic (in)stability (Bjørnland, Larsen and Maih). Published in: American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2018, Vol.10(4), pp.128-151.
- Mending the broken link: heterogeneous bank lending and monetary policy pass-through (Altavilla, Canova and Ciccarelli). Forthcoming in: Journal of Monetary Economics
- Are Small-Scale SVARs Useful for Business Cycle Analysis? Revisiting Non-Fundamentalness (Canova and Sahneh). Published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2018, Vol. 16(4), pp.1069-1093.
- The Value of News for Economic Developments (Larsen and Thorsrud). Published in: Journal of Econometrics Volume 210, Issue 1, May 2019, Pages 203-218
- Click here for a complete list of papers on applied macroeconomics and time series.
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Here we have gathered our research on commodity prices. Within this topic you will find recent research on commodity futures, the effect of media on asset returns, and other relevant questions regarding commodity prices.
- The Impact of U.S. Supply Shocks on the Global Oil Price (Gundersen)
- Asset returns, news topics, and media effects (Larsen and Thorsrud)
- Oil-Price Density Forecasts of U.S. GDP (Ravazzolo and Rothman)
- Working Paper (2015)
- Published in: Studies of Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics. 2016, vol. 20(4), 441-453
- Oil price density forecasts: Exploring the linkages with stock markets (Lombardi and Ravazzolo)
- Working Paper (2012)
- Published in: Journal of Commodity Markets, 2016, Vol 2(1), 45-57
- On the correlation between commodity and equity returns: Implications for portfolio allocation (Lombardi and Ravazzolo)
- Published in: Journal of Commodity Markets, 2016, Vol 2(1), 45-57
- Commodity Futures and Forecasting Commodity (Ravazzolo, Sveen and Zahiri)
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Here we have gathered our research on resource rich economies. Our research on the topic is focused on economies with high oil reserves, however, the papers are relevant for economies with other resource stocks as well.
- Commodity Prices and Fiscal Policy Design: Procyclical Despite a Rule (Bjørnland and Thorsrud)
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Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics 34(2), 2019, pp. 161-180
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- New Kid on the Block? China vs the US in World Oil Markets (Cross, Nguyen and Zhang)
- The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects (Bjørnland and Zhulanova)
- Business Cycles In An Oil Economy (Bergholt, Larsen and Seneca)
- Forthcoming in: Journal of International Money and Finance
- Dutch Disease Dynamics Reconsidered (Bjørnland, Thorsrud and Torvik)
- Working Paper (2018)
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Forthcoming in: European Economic Review
- Supply Flexibility in the Shale Patch: Evidence from North Dakota (Bjørnland, Nordvik and Rohrer)
- Should Developing Countries Establish Petroleum Funds? (Torvik, 2017)
- Working Paper (2017)
- Published in: The Energy Journal, 2018, Vol.39(4)
- Oil and Civil conflict: On and off (shore) (Andersen, Nordvik and Tesei)
- The political economy of public income volatility: with an application to the resource curse (Robinson, Torvik and Verdier)
- Working Paper (2015)
- Published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2017, vol. 145(C), 243-252
- Petro Rents, Political Institutions, and Hidden Wealth: Evidence from Offshore Bank Accounts (Andersen, Johannesen, Lassen and Paltseva)
- Working Paper (2013)
- Published in: Journal of the European Economic Association, 2017, vol 15(4), 818–860
- Boom or Gloom? Examining the Dutch disease in two-speed economies (Bjørnland and Thorsrud)
- Working Paper (2014)
- Published in: Economic Journal, 2016, vol 126(598), 2219–2256
- Petro populism (Matsen, Natvik and Torvik)
- Working Paper (2014)
- Published in: Journal of Development Economics, 2016, vol. 118, 1-12
- Local Natural Resource Curse? (Borge, Parmer and Torvik)
- Working Paper (2013)
- Published in: Journal of Public Economics, 2015, vol. 131, 101-114
- What drives oil prices? Emerging versus Developed Economies (Aastveit, Bjørnland and Thorsrud)
- Working Paper (2012)
- Published in: Journal of Applied Econometrics, 2015 vol. 30(7), 1013-1028
- Commodity Prices and Fiscal Policy Design: Procyclical Despite a Rule (Bjørnland and Thorsrud)
Funding
CAMP has received funding from Equinor, the Research Council of Norway and the Finance Market Fund. These are non-exclusive relationships, and CAMP welcomes support from other sources. Our research is independent of positions taken by any funders.
(i) Equinor's Research program in Petroleum and Energy Economics
Equinor has renewed their research collaboration with BI related to energy economics in 2022. The program was established in 2012 and first renewed for a five-year period in 2017.
The purpose of the program is to develop new academic research capacity in the economics of resource management and financial wealth based on petroleum and energy. The academic program is based on the Norwegian experience over the last four decades, and it has a focus on Norwegian challenges for the coming decades. The program is directed by Professor Hilde C. Bjørnland in the Department of Economics at BI Norwegian Business School.
(ii) The Resource Council of Norway
a) The Research Council of Norway: ES664707 MACROCAMP - The Corona-crisis, structural change, and macroeconomic policy, 2021-2024.
b) The Research Council of Norway has awarded Gift-strengthening support (gaveforsterkning) to Centre for Applied Macro and Commodity prices (CAMP), 2017.
(iii) The Finance Market Fund
The Finance Market Fund under the The Resource Council of Norway
BI has secured four out of the six research project allocations from The Finance Market Fund for 2025, including:
Project leader: Hilde C. Bjørnland
Project title: Energy transition: the distributional effect on household income and the role of monetary policy.
Period of funding: 2025 - 2027
Read more about this achievement in BI's news article.